The Edgework model · projection

2026-2027 Projections

Tonight · Projected shots

8 games · 2026-10-01

Not a betting product. In registered backtests this model does not beat DraftKings closing lines (Edgework PROPS-RESEARCH protocol: the v1 gate and hypotheses H1-H3 all failed their pre-registered bars). These are descriptive projections with calibrated uncertainty, nothing more.

Skater	Matchup	Role	Proj SOG	P(2+)	P(3+)	P(4+)	Proj TOI	Confidence
Evan Bouchard	EDM @ VAN	D1 · PP1	3.4	82%	63%	44%	24m	thin data
Vasily Podkolzin	EDM @ VAN	F2 · PP1	2.9	76%	54%	34%	17m	thin data
D. Guenther	UTA vs CHI	F1 · PP1	2.7	72%	50%	30%	19m	thin data
Connor McDavid	EDM @ VAN	F1 · PP1	2.7	72%	49%	30%	20m	thin data
B. Montour	SEA @ CGY	D1 · PP1	2.6	71%	47%	28%	25m	thin data
M. Sergachev	UTA vs CHI	D1 · PP1	2.5	69%	45%	26%	23m	thin data
M. Weegar	UTA vs CHI	D2 · PP1	2.5	68%	44%	25%	19m	thin data
M. Crozier	TBL @ NYR	D1 · PP1	2.5	68%	44%	25%	22m	thin data
L. Cooley	UTA vs CHI	F1 · PP2	2.5	68%	44%	25%	18m	thin data
D. Mateychuk	CBJ vs BUF	D1 · PP1	2.5	68%	44%	24%	25m	thin data
L. Crevier	BUF @ CBJ	D3 · PP1	2.5	68%	43%	24%	18m	thin data
J. Marino	UTA vs CHI	D1 · PP1	2.4	67%	43%	24%	22m	thin data
I. Provorov	CBJ vs BUF	D1 · PP1	2.4	66%	42%	23%	26m	thin data
F. Forsberg	NSH vs MIN	F1 · PP1	2.4	66%	42%	23%	19m	thin data
L. Hughes	NJD vs PHI	D1 · PP1	2.4	66%	42%	23%	22m	thin data
R. Dahlin	BUF @ CBJ	D1 · PP1	2.4	66%	41%	22%	23m	thin data
Leon Draisaitl	EDM @ VAN	F1 · PP1	2.4	66%	41%	22%	19m	thin data
Patrick Kane	CHI @ UTA	F1 · PP1	2.4	65%	41%	22%	20m	thin data
Z. Parekh	CGY vs SEA	D2 · PP1	2.4	65%	41%	22%	21m	thin data
M. Wood	NSH vs MIN	F1 · PP1	2.3	65%	41%	22%	19m	thin data
T. Thompson	BUF @ CBJ	F1 · PP2	2.3	65%	41%	22%	17m	thin data
R. Josi	NSH vs MIN	D1 · PP1	2.3	65%	40%	22%	23m	thin data
C. Brown	NJD vs PHI	F2	2.3	65%	40%	21%	15m	thin data
Zach Hyman	EDM @ VAN	F2 · PP1	2.3	64%	39%	21%	18m	thin data
Aleksander Barkov	FLA @ SJS	F2 · PP1	2.3	63%	39%	20%	17m	thin data
Pavel Dorofeyev	NYR vs TBL	F2 · PP2	2.2	63%	38%	20%	16m	thin data
Anton Lundell	FLA @ SJS	F1 · PP2	2.2	63%	38%	20%	18m	thin data
V. Nichushkin	CBJ vs BUF	F2 · PP2	2.2	63%	38%	20%	16m	thin data
Bowen Byram	CHI @ UTA	D1 · PP1	2.2	63%	38%	20%	24m	thin data
J. Spurgeon	MIN @ NSH	D2 · PP1	2.2	63%	38%	20%	19m	thin data

Top 30 of 287 projected skaters · drivers: recent shot rate × projected deployment (TOI, line/PP role) × opponent shots allowed · confidence from the registered segment-calibration study (see Methodology).

2026-27 · projected net contribution (5v5 vs position peers) · as of 2026-10-04

Goals = projected σ priced by the 2025-26 position-cohort goals-per-σ over the player’s 2025-26 5v5 TOI (no projected TOI exists in the bundle).

Forwards

Top projected net (5v5 vs peers)

Defense

Top projected net (5v5 vs peers)

New Faces

Youngest projected to contribute (≤23)

Macklin CelebriniSJS · 21+8

Lane HutsonMTL · 23+6

Juraj SlafkovskýMTL · 23+5

Cutter GauthierANA · 23+4

Adam FantilliCBJ · 22+4

Beckett SenneckeANA · 21+3

Matthew SchaeferNYI · 19+3

Jiri KulichBUF · 23+1