The Edgework model · contract valueAs of 2026-09-08
Contracts, ranked
Every contract on every roster — rated deals ranked by the value they provide, most surplus to least, with the rest of each team's book beneath.
Fair value = what the market pays at each player’s production rank; surplus = fair value − cap hit. Production is scored over two seasons (5:3). Goalies and skaters under the tracked-events floor are listed with their cap hit, unrated. ⓘ
2026-27 contracts · as of 2026-09-08 · 126 overpaid · 158 market rate · 156 underpaid · 19 panel players unsigned (no contract to value)
Gaps under $1M read as market rate — priced about right by the market’s own curve. Entry-level and growth deals are scored against the same curve and labeled.
Biggest Overpays
Paid furthest above what the market pays at their production rank
1
Drew Doughtyone-seasonproduces #110 of 118 priced D (2025-26 only, 5:3 Season impact) · paid #2 · market $2.0M vs $14.0M restatedLAK−$12.1M2
Leo Carlssongrowth dealproduces #62 of 250 priced F (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #1 · market $8.1M vs $18.0M restatedANA−$9.9M3
Matthew Tkachukone-seasonproduces #143 of 250 priced F (2024-25 only, 5:3 Season impact) · paid #25 (#19 restated) · market $4.6M vs $12.0M restatedFLA−$7.3M4
Dougie Hamiltonproduces #74 of 118 priced D (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #13 (#10 restated) · market $4.8M vs $11.5M restatedNJD−$6.7M5
Kirill Kaprizovone-seasonproduces #34 of 250 priced F (2025-26 only, 5:3 Season impact) · paid #2 · market $10.4M vs $17.0M restatedMIN−$6.6M
Drew Doughtyone-seasonproduces #110 of 118 priced D (2025-26 only, 5:3 Season impact) · paid #2 · market $2.0M vs $14.0M restatedLAK−$12.1M2Leo Carlssongrowth dealproduces #62 of 250 priced F (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #1 · market $8.1M vs $18.0M restatedANA−$9.9M3Matthew Tkachukone-seasonproduces #143 of 250 priced F (2024-25 only, 5:3 Season impact) · paid #25 (#19 restated) · market $4.6M vs $12.0M restatedFLA−$7.3M4Dougie Hamiltonproduces #74 of 118 priced D (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #13 (#10 restated) · market $4.8M vs $11.5M restatedNJD−$6.7M5Kirill Kaprizovone-seasonproduces #34 of 250 priced F (2025-26 only, 5:3 Season impact) · paid #2 · market $10.4M vs $17.0M restatedMIN−$6.6MBest Bargains
Furthest below the market pay at their rank (material deals only)
1
John Tavaresproduces #6 of 250 priced F (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #168 (#166 restated) · market $15.8M vs $4.8M restatedTOR+$11.0M2
Sidney Crosbyproduces #3 of 250 priced F (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #33 (#56 restated) · market $16.4M vs $9.5M restatedPIT+$7.0M3
Mattias Samuelssongrowth dealone-seasonproduces #6 of 118 priced D (2025-26 only, 5:3 Season impact) · paid #95 (#84 restated) · market $12.0M vs $5.3M restatedBUF+$6.7M4
Lane Hutsongrowth dealproduces #2 of 118 priced D (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #18 (#31 restated) · market $15.5M vs $8.8M restatedMTL+$6.7M5
Nick Suzukigrowth dealproduces #2 of 250 priced F (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #58 (#47 restated) · market $16.5M vs $9.9M restatedMTL+$6.6M
John Tavaresproduces #6 of 250 priced F (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #168 (#166 restated) · market $15.8M vs $4.8M restatedTOR+$11.0M2Sidney Crosbyproduces #3 of 250 priced F (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #33 (#56 restated) · market $16.4M vs $9.5M restatedPIT+$7.0M3Mattias Samuelssongrowth dealone-seasonproduces #6 of 118 priced D (2025-26 only, 5:3 Season impact) · paid #95 (#84 restated) · market $12.0M vs $5.3M restatedBUF+$6.7M4Lane Hutsongrowth dealproduces #2 of 118 priced D (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #18 (#31 restated) · market $15.5M vs $8.8M restatedMTL+$6.7M5Nick Suzukigrowth dealproduces #2 of 250 priced F (2-yr 5:3 Season impact) · paid #58 (#47 restated) · market $16.5M vs $9.9M restatedMTL+$6.6MEvery contract
807 contracts · 440 rated · 2026-27 cap dollars