The Edgework model · forecastas of 2026-08-20 · updates with roster moves

2026-27 Projected Standings

Median projected points; the bar is the P10–P90 range.

Point ranges are compressed by design — a tight spread reflects the model, not low confidence.

#	Team	Med	Range	PO%	GF	GA	GD	RW	ROW
1	WSH	109	98–119	94%	285	242	+43	38	46
2	COL	108	97–118	96%	283	243	+40	38	45
3	TBL	106	96–117	90%	281	246	+35	37	44
4	MTL	105	94–115	85%	279	249	+31	36	44
5	CAR	102	91–113	77%	274	253	+22	35	42
6	BUF	101	90–112	73%	274	254	+20	35	42
7	DAL	100	89–111	80%	272	255	+17	34	41
8	VGK	98	87–109	76%	269	258	+11	33	40
9	EDM	97	87–108	74%	269	260	+9	33	40
10	MIN	96	86–107	66%	267	261	+6	33	39
11	OTT	96	85–107	50%	266	262	+5	32	39
12	UTA	96	85–106	64%	266	261	+5	32	39
13	CBJ	96	86–107	53%	267	261	+6	32	39
14	PHI	95	85–106	47%	265	263	+2	32	39
15	STL	95	84–106	58%	264	263	+2	32	38
16	LAK	94	83–104	56%	263	265	-2	31	38
17	PIT	94	83–104	41%	263	265	-2	31	38
18	BOS	94	83–104	39%	262	265	-3	31	38
19	NYI	93	82–104	37%	261	266	-5	31	37
20	DET	92	81–103	31%	260	268	-8	30	37
21	ANA	92	81–102	47%	260	268	-8	30	37
22	WPG	92	80–102	41%	259	268	-9	30	37
23	SEA	91	80–101	42%	258	270	-12	30	36
24	TOR	91	80–102	28%	259	269	-10	30	36
25	FLA	89	78–100	22%	256	272	-15	29	36
26	NJD	89	78–99	19%	255	273	-18	29	35
27	SJS	89	78–99	33%	255	272	-17	29	35
28	NSH	88	77–99	26%	254	273	-20	29	35
29	NYR	88	77–98	16%	253	274	-21	28	35
30	CGY	86	76–97	23%	251	276	-25	28	34
31	CHI	84	73–95	15%	249	279	-31	27	33
32	VAN	79	68–90	6%	240	288	-48	24	30

GF / GA / GD are simulated season totals over the full 84-game 2026-27 schedule, empty-net goals included — comparable to official NHL totals, not per-82 rates. RW / ROW are median regulation and regulation-plus-OT wins; ties in the order are broken by the NHL’s own chain (head-to-head, then goal differential) on those simulated totals. See the methodology.

Seed is a league-wide points ranking; playoff odds fold in each team’s division and wild-card path — so a team can seed above another yet carry lower playoff odds.