The Edgework model · forecast

2025-26 Projected Standings

Where the season Monte Carlo lands each team over a full season simulated from before game one. The headline is median projected points; the bar behind it is the P10–P90 range.

How the forecast is calibrated →

Projected point ranges are compressed by design — the model separates teams conservatively (its measured low-discrimination property), so a tight league spread reflects the model, not a lack of confidence.

#	Team	Med	Range	PO%
1	CBJ	105	94–115	94%
2	STL	100	89–110	88%
3	WSH	98	87–109	80%
4	COL	98	88–108	85%
5	MTL	96	85–107	74%
6	ANA	95	84–105	74%
7	BUF	94	84–105	67%
8	TBL	94	83–105	65%
9	VGK	94	83–104	70%
10	NYI	92	81–103	53%
11	DAL	92	81–103	60%
12	CAR	92	81–102	52%
13	LAK	92	81–103	61%
14	TOR	91	80–101	49%
15	NYR	90	79–102	45%
16	SEA	90	79–101	52%
17	MIN	90	79–101	52%
18	WPG	90	79–101	52%
19	EDM	90	79–101	50%
20	NJD	90	79–100	41%
21	PIT	89	78–100	39%
22	DET	88	77–99	34%
23	OTT	87	77–98	34%
24	VAN	87	76–98	39%
25	PHI	87	76–98	28%
26	FLA	85	75–96	26%
27	CGY	85	75–96	29%
28	UTA	85	74–96	28%
29	BOS	84	73–95	20%
30	SJS	83	72–94	21%
31	CHI	82	72–93	20%
32	NSH	82	72–93	19%

Seed is a league-wide points ranking; playoff odds fold in each team’s division and wild-card path — so a team can seed above another yet carry lower playoff odds.