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The Edgework model · game forecast

Game Board

Win probabilities for today's games, built bottom-up from the dressed players' value — not a team rating. Calibrated, explainable, and honest about what it can't see.

Season & playoff odds →How calibrated is this? →What-if lab →

Projected to lead 2026-27

Net contribution · 5v5 vs peers
Full value model & projections →
Projected starterWin probabilities use each team’s projected starting goalie. Projections can be wrong, and goaltending is the least predictable input we measure — so the odds refresh when starters lock (~1 hour before puck drop). Until then, treat a game’s number as provisional.