The Edgework model · contract value
Contract Surplus
What does the model think each contract is worth? Expected cost is fit within position from a player's even-strength zone-rate value, then compared to his actual cap hit. Positive surplus is a team-friendly deal; negative is an overpay — but it's a 5v5-value estimate, so power-play drivers carry a caveat.
Estimated surplus vs 5×5 even-strength value — a model estimate, not a verdict. Expected cost is a within-position fit on each player’s 5v5 zone-rate value; it does not credit power-play or penalty-kill production. A special-teams driver (marked ⓘ PP-heavy) can read as an “overpay” here while still earning his deal. How surplus is computed.
2026-27 contracts · as of 2026-06-25 · 189 overpays · 66 headline bargains · 109 panel players unsigned (no contract to value)
Biggest Overpays
Where the deal most exceeds the model's expected cost
1
Kirill Kaprizovⓘ PP-heavymodel $6.1M vs $17.0M AAVMIN−$10.9M2
Leon Draisaitlⓘ PP-heavymodel $6.8M vs $14.0M AAVEDM−$7.2M3
Drew Doughtyⓘ PP-heavymodel $4.9M vs $11.0M AAVLAK−$6.1M4
Parker Wotherspoonⓘ PP-heavymodel $4.5M vs $10.0M AAVPIT−$5.5M5
Martin Necasmodel $6.0M vs $11.5M AAVCOL−$5.5M6
Mikko Rantanenⓘ PP-heavymodel $6.7M vs $12.0M AAVDAL−$5.3M7
Jonathan Huberdeaumodel $5.2M vs $10.5M AAVCGY−$5.3M8
Mitch Marnermodel $7.0M vs $12.0M AAVVGK−$5.0M9
Jack Eichelmodel $8.5M vs $13.5M AAVVGK−$5.0M10
Elias Petterssonⓘ PP-heavymodel $6.7M vs $11.6M AAVVAN−$4.9M11
Logan Cooleymodel $5.3M vs $10.0M AAVUTA−$4.7M12
Kyle Connormodel $7.3M vs $12.0M AAVWPG−$4.7M
Kirill Kaprizovⓘ PP-heavymodel $6.1M vs $17.0M AAVMIN−$10.9M2Leon Draisaitlⓘ PP-heavymodel $6.8M vs $14.0M AAVEDM−$7.2M3Drew Doughtyⓘ PP-heavymodel $4.9M vs $11.0M AAVLAK−$6.1M4Parker Wotherspoonⓘ PP-heavymodel $4.5M vs $10.0M AAVPIT−$5.5M5Martin Necasmodel $6.0M vs $11.5M AAVCOL−$5.5M6Mikko Rantanenⓘ PP-heavymodel $6.7M vs $12.0M AAVDAL−$5.3M7Jonathan Huberdeaumodel $5.2M vs $10.5M AAVCGY−$5.3M8Mitch Marnermodel $7.0M vs $12.0M AAVVGK−$5.0M9Jack Eichelmodel $8.5M vs $13.5M AAVVGK−$5.0M10Elias Petterssonⓘ PP-heavymodel $6.7M vs $11.6M AAVVAN−$4.9M11Logan Cooleymodel $5.3M vs $10.0M AAVUTA−$4.7M12Kyle Connormodel $7.3M vs $12.0M AAVWPG−$4.7MBest Bargains
Most team-friendly vs expected cost (material deals only)
1
Mark Jankowskimodel $7.3M vs $1.9M AAVCAR+$5.4M2
Warren Foegelemodel $7.8M vs $3.3M AAVLAK+$4.5M3
Brandon Tanevmodel $7.0M vs $2.5M AAVUTA+$4.5M4
Adam Gaudettemodel $6.4M vs $2.0M AAVSJS+$4.4M5
Tommy Novakmodel $7.0M vs $3.5M AAVPIT+$3.5M6
Mattias Samuelssonmodel $7.8M vs $4.3M AAVBUF+$3.5M7
Mathieu Oliviermodel $6.3M vs $3.0M AAVCBJ+$3.3M8
Jackson Blakemodel $6.8M vs $3.6M AAVCAR+$3.2M9
Sam Malinskimodel $7.8M vs $4.8M AAVCOL+$3.1M10
Zach Hymanmodel $8.5M vs $5.5M AAVEDM+$3.0M11
Sean Walkermodel $6.5M vs $3.6M AAVCAR+$2.9M12
Dante Fabbromodel $7.0M vs $4.1M AAVCBJ+$2.8M
Mark Jankowskimodel $7.3M vs $1.9M AAVCAR+$5.4M2Warren Foegelemodel $7.8M vs $3.3M AAVLAK+$4.5M3Brandon Tanevmodel $7.0M vs $2.5M AAVUTA+$4.5M4Adam Gaudettemodel $6.4M vs $2.0M AAVSJS+$4.4M5Tommy Novakmodel $7.0M vs $3.5M AAVPIT+$3.5M6Mattias Samuelssonmodel $7.8M vs $4.3M AAVBUF+$3.5M7Mathieu Oliviermodel $6.3M vs $3.0M AAVCBJ+$3.3M8Jackson Blakemodel $6.8M vs $3.6M AAVCAR+$3.2M9Sam Malinskimodel $7.8M vs $4.8M AAVCOL+$3.1M10Zach Hymanmodel $8.5M vs $5.5M AAVEDM+$3.0M11Sean Walkermodel $6.5M vs $3.6M AAVCAR+$2.9M12Dante Fabbromodel $7.0M vs $4.1M AAVCBJ+$2.8MThe bargain board floors at AAV ≥ $1.5M and value ≥ 0.25 SD above positional average: the cost curve is roughly linear, so cheap depth and minimum-salary deals otherwise read as the biggest “bargains” (a model-floor artifact). Those deals are excluded from this board, not hidden — the regression still fits on every contract and each player keeps his computed surplus on his own page. Overpays are unfloored.