The Edgework model · contract value
Contract Surplus
What the model thinks each contract is worth, next to what it costs — the biggest overpays and best bargains.
Prices current production in today’s cap dollars — not term, growth, or negotiation.
2026-27 contracts · as of 2026-08-20 · 134 overpaid · 189 market rate · 138 underpaid · 37 panel players unsigned (no contract to value)
All dollars are 2026-27 cap dollars — every AAV is restated by the cap it was actually signed under before it meets the curve.
Gaps under $1M read as market rate — priced about right by the model.
Biggest Overpays
Where the deal most exceeds the model's expected cost
1
Leo Carlssonmodel $7.5M vs $18.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $18.0M (17.3% of cap at signing)ANA−$10.5M2
Kirill Kaprizovmodel $10.0M vs $18.5M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $17.0M (17.8% of cap at signing)MIN−$8.5M3
Drew Doughtymodel $5.9M vs $14.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $11.0M (13.8% of cap at signing)LAK−$8.5M4
Elias Petterssonmodel $8.1M vs $14.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $11.6M (13.9% of cap at signing)VAN−$6.3M5
Erik Karlssonmodel $8.8M vs $15.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $11.5M (14.5% of cap at signing)PIT−$6.2M6
Jonathan Huberdeaumodel $7.1M vs $13.2M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $10.5M (12.7% of cap at signing)CGY−$6.1M7
Matthew Tkachukmodel $6.5M vs $12.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.5M (11.5% of cap at signing)FLA−$5.5M8
Connor Bedardmodel $9.6M vs $15.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $15.0M (14.4% of cap at signing)CHI−$5.4M9
Dougie Hamiltonmodel $6.3M vs $11.5M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.0M (11.0% of cap at signing)NJD−$5.2M10
Mitch Marnermodel $9.3M vs $14.2M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $12.0M (13.6% of cap at signing)VGK−$4.9M11
Kevin Fialamodel $5.3M vs $10.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $7.9M (9.7% of cap at signing)LAK−$4.8M12
Tyler Seguinmodel $8.3M vs $12.9M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.8M (12.4% of cap at signing)DAL−$4.6M
Leo Carlssonmodel $7.5M vs $18.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $18.0M (17.3% of cap at signing)ANA−$10.5M2Kirill Kaprizovmodel $10.0M vs $18.5M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $17.0M (17.8% of cap at signing)MIN−$8.5M3Drew Doughtymodel $5.9M vs $14.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $11.0M (13.8% of cap at signing)LAK−$8.5M4Elias Petterssonmodel $8.1M vs $14.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $11.6M (13.9% of cap at signing)VAN−$6.3M5Erik Karlssonmodel $8.8M vs $15.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $11.5M (14.5% of cap at signing)PIT−$6.2M6Jonathan Huberdeaumodel $7.1M vs $13.2M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $10.5M (12.7% of cap at signing)CGY−$6.1M7Matthew Tkachukmodel $6.5M vs $12.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.5M (11.5% of cap at signing)FLA−$5.5M8Connor Bedardmodel $9.6M vs $15.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $15.0M (14.4% of cap at signing)CHI−$5.4M9Dougie Hamiltonmodel $6.3M vs $11.5M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.0M (11.0% of cap at signing)NJD−$5.2M10Mitch Marnermodel $9.3M vs $14.2M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $12.0M (13.6% of cap at signing)VGK−$4.9M11Kevin Fialamodel $5.3M vs $10.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $7.9M (9.7% of cap at signing)LAK−$4.8M12Tyler Seguinmodel $8.3M vs $12.9M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.8M (12.4% of cap at signing)DAL−$4.6MBest Bargains
Most team-friendly vs expected cost (material deals only)
1
John Tavaresmodel $11.3M vs $5.2M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $4.4M (5.0% of cap at signing)TOR+$6.1M2
Mattias Samuelssonmodel $10.7M vs $5.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $4.3M (5.2% of cap at signing)BUF+$5.3M3
Dylan Stromemodel $11.5M vs $6.3M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $5.0M (6.1% of cap at signing)WSH+$5.2M4
Ryan O'Reillymodel $9.9M vs $5.6M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $4.5M (5.4% of cap at signing)NSH+$4.3M5
Aliaksei Protasmodel $8.2M vs $4.2M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $3.4M (4.0% of cap at signing)WSH+$4.0M6
Alexandre Carriermodel $8.0M vs $4.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $3.8M (4.3% of cap at signing)MTL+$3.6M7
Nick Suzukimodel $13.5M vs $10.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $7.9M (9.7% of cap at signing)MTL+$3.4M8
Kirill Marchenkomodel $8.0M vs $4.5M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $3.9M (4.4% of cap at signing)CBJ+$3.4M9
Vincent Trocheckmodel $10.5M vs $7.1M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $5.6M (6.8% of cap at signing)NYR+$3.4M10
Cale Makarmodel $14.6M vs $11.5M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.0M (11.0% of cap at signing)COL+$3.1M11
Pavel Zachamodel $8.9M vs $6.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $4.8M (5.8% of cap at signing)BOS+$2.9M12
Nico Hischiermodel $12.1M vs $9.3M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $7.3M (8.9% of cap at signing)NJD+$2.9M
John Tavaresmodel $11.3M vs $5.2M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $4.4M (5.0% of cap at signing)TOR+$6.1M2Mattias Samuelssonmodel $10.7M vs $5.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $4.3M (5.2% of cap at signing)BUF+$5.3M3Dylan Stromemodel $11.5M vs $6.3M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $5.0M (6.1% of cap at signing)WSH+$5.2M4Ryan O'Reillymodel $9.9M vs $5.6M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $4.5M (5.4% of cap at signing)NSH+$4.3M5Aliaksei Protasmodel $8.2M vs $4.2M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $3.4M (4.0% of cap at signing)WSH+$4.0M6Alexandre Carriermodel $8.0M vs $4.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $3.8M (4.3% of cap at signing)MTL+$3.6M7Nick Suzukimodel $13.5M vs $10.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $7.9M (9.7% of cap at signing)MTL+$3.4M8Kirill Marchenkomodel $8.0M vs $4.5M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $3.9M (4.4% of cap at signing)CBJ+$3.4M9Vincent Trocheckmodel $10.5M vs $7.1M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $5.6M (6.8% of cap at signing)NYR+$3.4M10Cale Makarmodel $14.6M vs $11.5M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.0M (11.0% of cap at signing)COL+$3.1M11Pavel Zachamodel $8.9M vs $6.0M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $4.8M (5.8% of cap at signing)BOS+$2.9M12Nico Hischiermodel $12.1M vs $9.3M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $7.3M (8.9% of cap at signing)NJD+$2.9MPriced About Right
The biggest contracts the model reads as market rate
1
Connor McDavidmodel $14.2M vs $13.6M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $12.5M (13.1% of cap at signing)EDM+$0.6M2
Aleksander Barkovmodel $12.6M vs $12.8M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $10.0M (12.3% of cap at signing)FLA−$0.2M3
Nikita Kucherovmodel $12.3M vs $12.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.5M (11.9% of cap at signing)TBL−$0.2M4
Sebastian Ahomodel $12.8M vs $12.1M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.8M (11.7% of cap at signing)CAR+$0.7M5
Filip Forsbergmodel $10.1M vs $10.7M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $8.5M (10.3% of cap at signing)NSH−$0.6M6
Jake Guentzelmodel $11.5M vs $10.6M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.0M (10.2% of cap at signing)TBL+$0.9M7
Jakob Chychrunmodel $10.5M vs $10.6M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.0M (10.2% of cap at signing)WSH−$0.1M8
Tomas Hertlmodel $10.7M vs $10.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $8.1M (10.0% of cap at signing)VGK+$0.4M
Connor McDavidmodel $14.2M vs $13.6M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $12.5M (13.1% of cap at signing)EDM+$0.6M2Aleksander Barkovmodel $12.6M vs $12.8M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $10.0M (12.3% of cap at signing)FLA−$0.2M3Nikita Kucherovmodel $12.3M vs $12.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.5M (11.9% of cap at signing)TBL−$0.2M4Sebastian Ahomodel $12.8M vs $12.1M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.8M (11.7% of cap at signing)CAR+$0.7M5Filip Forsbergmodel $10.1M vs $10.7M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $8.5M (10.3% of cap at signing)NSH−$0.6M6Jake Guentzelmodel $11.5M vs $10.6M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.0M (10.2% of cap at signing)TBL+$0.9M7Jakob Chychrunmodel $10.5M vs $10.6M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $9.0M (10.2% of cap at signing)WSH−$0.1M8Tomas Hertlmodel $10.7M vs $10.4M in 2026-27 $ · AAV $8.1M (10.0% of cap at signing)VGK+$0.4M