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July 1, 2026 · Edgework

Reading the 2026-27 Projections

A short walk through what the model expects next season — and the leaderboard rendered live, straight from the projection bundle.

The 2026-27 projection is a single number per skater: projected net contribution, a 5v5 zone-rate value measured against position peers. It is built from each player's prior seasons and an age curve — a projection, not a result. It says who the model expects to drive play next season, before a single puck has dropped.

Two things worth keeping in mind before you read the board. First, this is 5v5 only, by validated design — power-play creators read lower here than their total value would suggest. Second, it is a forecast: the further a player is from a stable multi-season sample, the softer the estimate.

The board, live

The list below is not a screenshot. It is the same ProjectionsBoard component the /projections page uses, rendered here inside the post from the live projection bundle — forwards and defense, top projected net, plus the youngest projected contributors:

That is the whole point of this posts pipeline: prose and live model surfaces in one document. The next pieces will lean on it — walking a single team's projected core, or contrasting two players — without ever pasting a stale table.

For the full board and the methodology behind it, see the projections page.