Estimated surplus vs 5×5 even-strength value — a model estimate, not a verdict. Expected cost is a within-position fit on each player’s 5v5 zone-rate value; it does
not credit power-play or penalty-kill production. A special-teams driver (marked
ⓘ PP-heavy) can read as an “overpay” here while still earning his deal.
How surplus is computed. Contract Surplus
+$0.4Mⓘ PP-heavy
model expects $5.6M vs $5.3M AAV — a 5v5-value estimate, not a verdict
Below the model’s value/AAV floor — not a headline bargain.